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08/20/2010 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Fire travel to take on Houston for their second Major League Soccer fixture in three days on Saturday night.
The Fire are coming off a 2-1 win over New England at Toyota park on Wednesday, and are hoping to build on the effort on the road even though they will be on short rest.
Calen Carr scored the game winner five minutes from time on Wednesday in his first game of the season for the Fire (6-5-6).
"It was great," Carr told mlssoccer.com. "Right after I scored, I just kind of ran and wanted to celebrate with my teammates and then just kind of let it soak in. To get a win and to score in my first game back after what was a really difficult road is a great feeling."
The goal was set up by the recently acquired Freddie Ljungberg, who is making an impact with his new team after being traded from Seattle Sounders FC.
"Freddie is a player that any coach in the league would want," Fire coach Carlos de los Cobos told mlssoccer.com. "I am very happy with him and the commitment he has shown to this team."
The Fire's other designated player, Nery Castillo, lasted only 45 minutes in his first MLS start as he continues to adjust to his new surroundings.
"I still need to work on my fitness and to find my rhythm, but I felt good playing a half," he told mlssoccer.com. "I will admit I got tired, and so I asked to be taken out to give the opportunity to someone who was in better shape than me because we knew this was a must-win game for us."
The Dynamo (5-10-5) are currently in the midst of a 10-game winless run, which makes getting a result on its home field on Saturday that much more important. It is second-from-the-bottom in the Western table, and in real danger of falling to last place.
The team is still adjusting to the transition of losing a number of regulars, especially from the midfield, over the past couple seasons.
"I think in the past we have had guys on the field who had played with each other for five-plus years," Dynamo forward Brian Ching told mlssoccer.com. "This year that isn't the case, and I think the more games we get under our belt, the more positive and the more confident we are going forward."
<< Bucks sign Boykins
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Bucks announced Friday they
have signed guard Earl Boykins.
Boykins, 34, spent the 2009-10 season with Washington and averaged 6.6
points and 2.6 assists in 67 games. He previously
<< Marseille signing Remy has heart problem
Marseille, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marseille revealed Friday that striker
Loic Remy, acquired on Thursday from Nice, has a heart condition and will not
make his debut Saturday.
Marseille acquired Remy, a 23-year-old who has played twi
<< Twins' Punto heads back to DL
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have placed infielder
Nick Punto back on the 15-day disabled list because of a strained left
hamstring.
Punto aggravated the injury in the fifth inning of Thursday's game again
<< Tigers recall Figaro, option Weinhardt
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers recalled pitcher Alfredo
Figaro from Triple-A Toledo and optioned pitcher Robbie Weinhardt to the same
club Friday.
Figaro has appeared in one game this season for the Tigers. The righ
Marlins' Paulino suspended, placed on restricted list >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Florida Marlins catcher Ronny Paulino has
received a 50-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball's Joint Drug
Prevention and Treatment Program.
The team placed Paulino on the restricted lis
Union continue quest for first shutout at United >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Union earned their first-
ever Major League Soccer win over D.C. United, and could produce another first
against the struggling four-time champions Sunday afternoon at RFK Stadium.
The Uni
NBA hands down 10-game suspension for Delonte West >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Basketball Association has
suspended guard Delonte West for 10 games without pay for pleading guilty to
carrying a concealed weapon and wearing, carrying, and transporting a handgun,
in viol
Serena withdraws from U.S. Open >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serena Williams has withdrawn from the U.S.
Open because of a right foot injury she sustained last month.
The world No. 1 cut her foot on broken glass in a restaurant in July, an
injury that required
New York, NY – October 3, 2007 – The dress rehearsal is over! The NHL preseason has ended and now that fans have had a glimpse of what is to come it is time to hit the book! Stanley Cup odds are live at MySportsbook.com, the world’s largest online sportsbook and casino.
The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings remain on top of the odds charts after an impressive start in the preseason. Betting lines opened for both teams at 6-1 in June. Since then the Sens have fallen to 7-1 and the Red Wings are now caught in a pack including the defending champion Carolina Hurricanes, the San Jose Sharks and the Anaheim Ducks, all at 10-1.
MySportsbook.com has also posted props on each team’s point total for the regular season. The Senators lead the charge at 108.5 followed by the Ducks at 106.5. Detroit will attempt a repeat for the prize as the Red Wings are deadlocked with the Predators at 104.5 a piece. The temporary loss of highly touted rookie Evgeni Malkin puts a lot of pressure on the stick of assistant captain Sidney Crosby - his lowly Pittsburgh Penguins are listed at 71.5.
Even if bettors are not brave enough to put their money on the underdog, an early bet on the favorites at sportsbook.com tends to produce bigger payouts than a mid-season wager. Placing a $1,000 bet last summer on the Detroit Red Wings or Ottawa Senators would have paid out to $8,000 and $10,000 respectively, opposed to a $2,500 or $3,000 payout at the beginning of the playoffs.
| Ottawa Senators Detroit Red Wings Carolina Hurricanes San Jose Sharks Anaheim Ducks Philadelphia Flyers Calgary Flames New Jersey Devils Buffalo Sabres Dallas Stars New York Rangers Nashville Predators Vancouver Canucks Colorado Avalanche Minnesota Wild Tampa Bay Lightning Boston Bruins Florida Panthers Montreal Canadiens Atlanta Thrashers Toronto Maple Leafs Edmonton Oilers Phoenix Coyotes Los Angeles Kings New York Islanders Columbus Blue Jackets St. Louis Blues Pittsburgh Penguins Washington Capitals Chicago Blackhawks |
7-1 10-1 10-1 10-1 10-1 12-1 12-1 12-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 15-1 20-1 20-1 25-1 25-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 30-1 40-1 40-1 50-1 50-1 80-1 80-1 100-1 100-1 |
NHL Regular Season Points - Team Must Play 82 Games
| Team Ottawa Senators Anaheim Ducks Detroit Red Wings Nashville Predators San Jose Sharks Calgary Flames Philadelphia Flyers New Jersey Devils Buffalo Sabres Carolina Hurricanes Dallas Stars New York Rangers Minnesota Wild Atlanta Thrashers Montreal Canadiens Team Los Angeles Kings Tampa Bay Lightening Vancouver Canucks Boston Bruins Colorado Avalanche Edmonton Oilers Phoenix Coyotes Toronto Maple Leafs Florida Panthers Columbus Blue Jackets New York Islanders Chicago Blackhawks St. Louis Blues Washington Capitals Pittsburgh Penguins |
Over/Under 108.5 106.5 104.5 104.5 103.5 101.5 100.5 99.5 97.5 97.5 97.5 95.5 94.5 93.5 92.5 Over/Under 91.5 91.5 91.5 89.5 89.5 88.5 88.5 86.5 84.5 82.5 80.5 72.5 72.5 72.5 71.5 |
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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