Gaming: College Pigskin Prognostications

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After months of waiting, the 2010 college football season is ready to kick off its first barrage of Saturday games, and with that comes the unveiling of my inaugural Top 12, followed by each club's power ratings.

1-T) Boise State and Ohio State, 100.5; 3-T) Oklahoma and Alabama, 100; 5) Florida, 99.5; 6) Texas, 99; 7) Nebraska, 98.5; 8-T) Wisconsin and Iowa, 98; 10-T) TCU and Oregon, 97.5; 12) LSU, 96.5

For comparison purposes, here were last year's final Top 10 numbers:

1) Alabama, 108; 2) Florida, 106; 3) Texas, 105.5; 4) TCU, 103.5; 5) Oklahoma, 103; 6) Virginia Tech, 102; 7) Boise State, 101.5; 8-T) Nebraska and Ohio State, 100; 10) Oregon, 98

2009 ATS RECORD

Yours truly went 5-3 during last year's bowl campaign for a final 2009 ATS total of 116-94-2, good for 55 percent.

This season I will continue highlighting the top plays on a weekly basis, especially since those games with extensive write-ups went 25-8-1 between Oct. 1 and the end of the season. I will also try to maintain that 75 percent winning percentage in 2010.

For those reading this column for the first time, I break down my picks into four classifications. The Five-Star plays are those games where my key selections and my "Power Numbers" match. The Three-Star choices are my personal picks, while the Two-Star plays are the "power number" picks -- games with at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. Finally, the One-Star plays are my personal secondary selections.

Last season's Five-Star totals wound up at 5-4 (56 percent). The Three-Star choices went 45-24-1 (65 percent), while the Two-Star plays finished at 35-31-1 (53 percent). The One-Star picks ended at 31-35 (47 percent).

So far in 2010, the overall record stands at 1-0-1 as Hawaii (Two-Star) covered against USC and Utah (Three-Star) pushed versus Pittsburgh.

THE LONE FIVE-STAR PLAY

Auburn hosts Arkansas State in its opener this Saturday but one wonders how much the Tigers have prepared for the Red Wolves, especially with a huge conference road game just five days later against Mississippi State.

There is no doubt Auburn will be much improved this season after going 3-5 in SEC play last year. However, do not sell Arkansas State short. The Red Wolves have covered at least one game per season over the last seven years versus a BCS opponent, including a three-point SU loss at Iowa in '09, a victory over Texas A&M in '08, and an eight-point SU loss at Texas in '07. Arkansas State's defense will keep this one much closer than the line suggests.

Take the Red Wolves plus the points.

THREE-STAR PLAYS

Oklahoma State hosts Washington State and, surprisingly, the Cowboys are not favored by at least 20 points. The line is extremely low at 17 considering the Cougars still have major question marks on defense.

It is true Oklahoma State will not be one of the top teams in the Big 12 this season but the Cowboys will still put points on the scoreboard. Defensively, they will struggle with just four returning starters. Still, we are talking Washington State -- not Troy, Tulsa and Texas A&M, the next three opponents that come to Stillwater.

Take Oklahoma State minus the points.

Michigan State and Western Michigan hooked up last Nov. 7 and the Spartans rolled to a 49-14 victory. They also outgained the Broncos by close to 400 yards. Not much has changed since as Michigan State returns the bulk of its skill position players and four of its top five tacklers. On the other side, Western Michigan is without its all-time career passing leader in Tim Hiller and its third all-time leading rusher in Brandon West. The defense loses its top two tacklers along with both starting cornerbacks.

Take Michigan State minus the points.

TWO-STAR PICKS

Three underdogs top the Two-Star choices in week one. Go with Purdue (at Notre Dame), Cincinnati (at Fresno State), and Maryland (versus Navy).

ONE-STAR SELECTIONS

Take Toledo (against Arizona) on Friday night and follow that up with Washington plus the points (at BYU), and Boise State on Monday night (against Virginia Tech).

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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