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03/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Memphis Grizzlies will attempt to keep the longest road winning streak in franchise history intact when they visit a place they've historically struggled over the years, Boston's TD Garden, for tonight's matchup with the Atlantic Division-leading Celtics.
Memphis heads to Beantown having prevailed in each of its last six outings as the visitor, with the team's last road loss coming at Minnesota on February 6. That success has kept the surprising Grizzlies in the Western Conference playoff race, where the club currently trails Portland by four games for the eighth and final postseason seed.
The Grizzlies haven't been nearly as successful in their own building as of late, but did manage to halt a string of eight straight defeats at FedExForum with Monday's 107-101 triumph over New Jersey. Rudy Gay and Mike Conley each scored 21 points for Memphis, with Gay coming down with 10 rebounds on the evening.
Marc Gasol also recorded a double-double as the Grizzlies posted their third win in their last four overall games, finishing with 19 points and 13 boards to help offset the absence of Zach Randolph, Memphis' leading scorer and rebounder this season.
Randolph, who's averaging 20.8 points and 11.8 rebounds in 2009-10, sat out the contest with a stiff back but is expected to play this evening.
The Grizzlies could use the services of the talented forward as they try to halt a six-game losing streak in this series. Memphis has not defeated the Celtics since a 98-96 decision at the Garden on December 6, 2006 and has fallen in four of its last five trips to Boston, where the team is 5-8 all- time.
The Celtics had won four in a row prior to last night's narrow loss at resurgent Milwaukee, which rallied late in the fourth quarter to come through with an 86-84 victory.
Boston had taken a 77-72 midway through the final period on a three-point play from Rajon Rondo, but the Bucks answered with a 14-2 run to take a seven-point lead with under three minutes to go.
A Kevin Garnett jump hook with 53.2 seconds left pulled the Celtics within 86-84, and Boston had a final chance to tie or win after Milwaukee's Brandon Jennings missed a three-point shot in the final moments. Paul Pierce's jumper from the right wing would clank off the rim as time expired, however.
"[The Bucks] just made big plays down the stretch and we didn't," Boston coach Doc Rivers said. "I thought all the 50-50 plays in the game was going to be the difference in the game -- loose ball, offensive rebounds. I thought they won that battle."
Rondo ended with 20 points and six assists while Kevin Garnett compiled 14 points and 10 rebounds in the loss. Ray Allen, coming off a 25-point performance in Sunday's 86-83 home win over Washington, was limited to a mere three points on 0-of-3 shooting for the Celtics.
Pierce, Boston's leading scorer at 17.6 points per game, struggled as well. The All-Star forward finished with 12 points, but made just 3-of-13 shots from the field.
Despite Tuesday's loss, the Celtics own a comfortable eight-game lead over Toronto for first place in the Atlantic Division and are 2 1/2 back of Orlando for the Eastern Conference's No. 2 playoff seed.
<< Hoyas and Bulls collide in Big East Tourney
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big East Tournament continues today, as
the ninth-seeded South Florida Bulldogs tussle with the 22nd-ranked and
eighth-seeded Georgetown Hoyas in second-round action at Madison Square
Garden. The winner of th
<< Robert Morris battles Quinnipiac for NEC crown
Hamden, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats and the
second-seeded Robert Morris Colonials are set to collide in the championship
game of the 2010 Northeast Conference Tournament, and the winner will receive
an automatic bid
<< Time is now to eliminate head shots in hockey
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A concussion is serious, and the NHL may
finally be waking up to the fact. Anyone who has had a serious knock will tell
you that the effects can be scary. While the league has spent years dancing
around the s
<< Garciaparra calls it a career
Fort Myers, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox have called a morning
news conference at which time infielder Nomar Garciaparra is expected to
announce his retirement.
According to Boston sports talk station WEEI, Garciaparra
Thunder return home to face Hornets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be well on their
way towards ending a playoff drought, the New Orleans Hornets enter tonight's
showdown between these teams in danger of missing out of the postseason fray.
The injur
Raptors make a stop in Sacramento >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The reeling Toronto Raptors aim to right the ship tonight
as they resume a four-game western road trip against the Sacramento Kings.
The Raptors are now fighting for their playoff lives after dropping the opener
of thei
Devils return home for battle with rival Rangers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three straight road games out west following the Olympic
break seemed to have caught up with the Devils in their most recent contest.
New Jersey now returns home for the first time in nearly a month this evening
when it pl
Mavs aim to push win streak to 13 vs. Nets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NBA's worst team takes on its hottest when the New
Jersey Nets meet the Dallas Mavericks in Big D tonight.
Despite playing short-handed the Mavs earned their 12th straight victory on
Monday in Minneapolis whe
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.
New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.
His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.
HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.
The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.
RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.
First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.
The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.
These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.
New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.
You can find these lines and all of the NFL betting lines , so be sure to login and get your wagers down before kickoff!
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines .
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