Stampeders and Eskimos meet for second time this week

Football Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Friday night brings out the best and the worst in the Canadian Football League as the slumping Edmonton Eskimos entertain the high-flying Calgary Stampeders in a Western Division showdown at Commonwealth Stadium.

Except for a single misstep against Toronto back in the middle of July, the Stampeders have been perfect this season. On Labour Day Calgary posted its second 50-point game in the last three outings by blowing away this same Edmonton squad, 52-5. On a roll with six consecutive wins, the Stamps have outscored their last three opponents by a combined 156-55 and that has the squad sitting atop the league's scoring list with an average of 35.9 ppg. Not surprisingly Edmonton, which has fallen in three of the last four games and has captured its two victories by a margin of just three points each, is at the bottom of that list after nine games with just 18.6 ppg.

The Eskimos may have scored the first points of the meeting on Monday with an 86-yard single by Noel Prefontaine, the kicker ending up being responsible for all five of the team's points, but the offense failed to do anything significant for the visitors on the day. The quarterback tandem of Ricky Ray and Jared Zabransky combined to hit just 12-of-30 passes for 193 yards and each was intercepted twice in the awful effort. Adding insult to injury was the fact that running back Arkee Whitlock gained a mere three yards on three attempts before leaving the meeting with an actual injury.

Over on the other side, there was no stopping the Stamps as Henry Burris made history with his 15-of-23 passing effort for 226 yards and three touchdowns. The signal-caller, now with 35,054 yards passing in his career, moved past Dieter Brock for 10th place on the CFL's all-time passing list. Romby Bryant was the chief recipient of Burris's efforts as he reeled in five balls for 80 yards and a pair of scores, while Ken-Yon Rambo and Deon Murphy also caught scoring strikes to dig an even deeper hole for the Eskimos.

Running back Joffrey Reynolds, who coming into this season had gained at least 1,200 yards rushing in five straight campaigns, accounted for a game-high 85 yards and tallied a major on 18 carries in the onslaught as well.

Since opening the season against Toronto with 116 yards and a score, averaging almost seven yards per carry, Reynolds hasn't been as productive, but some of that can be attributed to Burris finding a groove and sticking with it by putting the ball in the air more often. Nevertheless, even though Reynolds has not logged 100 yards in a game since the opener, he is still second in the league in rushing after nine games with 706 yards and that's reason enough for opposing defenses to keep him on their radar.

Burris, now completing his passes at a 65.1 percent clip, has thrown 13 interceptions to tie for the most in the league, but those mistakes are outweighed by his league-high 21 TD strikes. The only team with more interceptions thrown at this juncture is Edmonton with 14, divided up among a number of players. The Eskimos as a whole have completed an even 60 percent of their attempts, but with more than a dozen INTs and just eight TD passes the squad has a dismal 73.4 efficiency rating at the moment.

Granted, over the years Ray has had his share of success against Calgary, tossing 26 touchdowns through the air and scoring another three on the ground, but he has also suffered not only 13 picks but 14 fumbles as well. In his career versus Edmonton, Burris has also put the ball on the carpet (13 times) and thrown 19 interceptions, but his whopping 39 touchdowns through the air and seven on the ground have easily balanced the ledger.

Even though Calgary blew the doors off the Esks just four days ago, it is Edmonton that owns a 121-80-3 advantage in the regular-season series between the two clubs dating back to 1949. Nonetheless, the Stamps have taken five straight meetings and six of the last seven versus Edmonton.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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